With the release of housing market reports from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), VREB, TD Bank, Royal LePage, and other real estate and economic organizations over the past few months, a picture of the Victoria housing market in 2016 is slowly starting to come together. The majority of available reports focus on Vancouver and BC as a whole, but as the Victoria market takes cues from the mainland, our outlook doesn't look to be too different. Here's what we keep seeing:

More People Will Be Around To Buy More Houses

While other provinces are being told to beware the effects of falling oil prices, BC's non-energy industries are likely to combine with low interest rates and the current CAD/USD exchange rate to keep us going strong for the next couple of years.

Nearly all sources are predicting a rise in BC's population growth (with newcomers arriving from both within and outside of Canada), a raise in average hourly wages province-wide, and a slight drop in unemployment. The changes are expected to be milder in Victoria than the rest of the province, but this still means an increase in the number of people financially capable of owning a home, which then creates an uptick in new building projects, real estate turnover, and resale activity.

New single-family home construction will see an increase, but most of the activity is going to be from multi-family home construction, especially condos and rental apartments. Some reports state that due to the shrinking number of unsold multi-family homes, builders are expected to start new projects to keep up with demand and add density in desireable neighbourhoods. Other reports claim that multi-family units will continue to sell, but will drop slightly from previous numbers as development spreads out among the suburbs.

While Canada's overall population of 25-34 year olds (who form the majority of first-time home buyers) is expected to start declining in 2017, there have been some studies stating that Victoria specifically should expect an increase in the number of 25-44 year olds and 65+ year olds — along with a potential overall population increase of up to 24% over the next 20 years. Students, retirees, and new arrivals to the city are likely to favour renting over home ownership, and single-detached home prices are expected to raise, all of which will keep multi-family units moving strong.

Mortgage Rates Are Going Up - Slightly

Mortgage rates in Victoria are predicted to edge their way upwards throughout 2016, especially at the end of the year when the local economy is expected to be improving. It won't be by much — 2016 rates aren't likely to increase more than a percent above 2015 rates (from 2.6-3.3% to 3-3.8% for one-year rates), although 2017 is expected to add another percent on top of that (3.9-4.8%).

This increase in mortgage rates will actually help balance the housing market. With increased employment, population growth, and new housing projects in the wings, higher rates will keep home sales from getting out of hand.

Prices Will Go Up - Slightly

With the number of BC MLS resales going up in 2016 and 2017, prices will be going up with them. Vancouver in particular is supposed to see a larger share of the higher-priced homes in BC, which may in turn influence rising prices in the rest of the province. Single-detached homes are especially likely to see price increases over the next couple of years just like they did in 2015, especially as inventory shrinks.

In the Victoria Core, the MLS Home Price Index benchmark value for single family homes climbed from $560,900 in 2014 to $613,600 in 2015. While this trend will continue, the expanding resale market should lessen the upward pressure on average sale prices in 2016, preventing the numbers from jumping as high.

TD Bank, on the other hand, predicts that weaker demand and several years of overbuilding will result in average house prices falling by 2017 — maybe even as early as this year. Time (and development projects) will tell.

It All Evens Out

Despite all these upwards trends, we should see signs of the market slowing to a more regular pace as spring sets in. Higher spring property inventory levels, more competitive asking prices, increasing mortgage rates and strong resale activity will start their balancing act with provincial employment gains, low interest rates, increased tourism, and new Victoria homeowners settling in from outside the province.

The only thing to keep an eye on is Canada's household debt levels, which are still high throughout the country. If the economy suffered some sort of economic shock that rose the unemployment rate, homeowners could be forced to sell their properties, which would flood the market and force prices down. Luckily there aren't any hints of that happening any time in the near future.

With such smooth sailing, it's not a bad year to sell or to buy. A little time and effort, plus some professional guidance, and 2016 should get you a good bang for your property's buck.